Wind power is variable, but predictable!
Let’s not beat around the bush: wind power is variable. Output power of a wind turbine varies with the wind speed and every location will have some degree of wind speed variations around an average value. Even on a windy night in Vanuatu, wind speed and thus output power of the XANT turbines will fluctuate. Wind power is not intermittent however; it does not suddenly start nor stops. Rather it is constant variation around an average value in combination with more long-term cycles of windy days and periods of calm.
Variability is ok, after all also the electrical load on a grid constantly changes, if it can be predicted and thus considered in dispatch schedules to ensure the continuity of supply. Wind power output prediction is already done for larger wind farms on- and off-shore. The progress in Artificial Intelligence and in overall computing power has made this technique even more performant and accessible.
XANT and the University of Ghent (LEMCKO lab) are collaborating to develop a 7-day ahead power output prediction algorithm. This algorithm will be based on weather measurements for forecasting with an hourly resolution that are updated every 6hrs. Machine learning techniques will be used to train a model to convert weather forecasts into power output; as more data becomes available the forecast error will gradually be reduced and thus the forecast more accurate.
Predictive analytics to combine revenue streams
XANT wind turbines are now already available with integrated storage. When batteries come into play, predictive analytics, such as the forecast of the wind power output and the load, is crucial to optimize the use of the battery storage capacity. In the end it’s about the economy: maximizing the kWh produced by your XANT wind turbine. Using storage in combination with predictive analytics enables combining multiple revenue streams:
- Peak shaving to flatten or smoothen your load profile and reduce capacity tariff payments
- Inject excess power into the grid leveraging the variability of electricity prices
- Maximize on-site consumption considering the effect of time-of-use tariffs
Combining revenue streams will be essential for maximizing the pay-back of your assets, whether it is wind, storage or a combination of both.
XANT is excited to team up with the University of Ghent and bring this new feature to our clients via the XANTPORTAL system. Wind turbine output power forecasts will be available via our web-based SCADA system with a 1h resolution and a 4times/day update rate. This new feature will not only benefit to our distributed-generation customers, but obviously also micro-grid operators will benefit from knowing ahead how much energy the XAN turbines on their system will deliver.
XANT is a manufacturer of midsize (50…500kW) turbines for the microgrid and off-grid markets. XANT turbines are designed with microgrid applications in mind and a with a special focus on remote areas and harsh operating conditions. They have Just Enough Essential Parts (JEEP!), fit in 40ft containers and can be erected without a crane. For deployment in typhoon-prone areas the turbines can be lowered to the ground, also facilitating the maintenance. XANT turbines have the capability of active power curtailment and can be equipped with integrated energy storage to allow for a high penetration rate.
The extreme simplicity, easy maintenance, silent operation and low cost of ownership make XANT turbines ideally suited for wind power on remote locations and close to the consumer. The XANT product portfolio consist of the XANT M (100kW) and the XANT L (330kW) – commercially available in 2020- platforms. Both turbine types exist in class Ia (average wind speeds up to 10m/s) and class IIIa (7.5m/s) executions; for extremely cold areas ETR (Extended Temperature Range) versions are available.
About UGhent – LEMCKO:
Ghent University is a top 100 university and one of the major universities in Belgium. Our 11 faculties offer a wide range of courses and conduct in-depth research within a wide range of scientific domains. We are also the first European university in the Songdo Global University Campus in South Korea.
EELAB-Lemcko is an electrical expertise center for Energy, EMC and Power Quality at the University of Ghent. Since the start in 1998 under the supervision of Prof. dr. Jan Desmet, it has experienced steady growth. EELAB-Lemcko draws its knowledge from applied scientific research and from measurements in its own lab.